Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has closed two straight weeks below $83,000, a level analyst Benjamin Cowen says now confirms a fakeout.
Why Cowen Says the Bears Are Back in Control
Cowen posted on X Monday that two items on his bearish playbook have now played out, including that second weekly close, which he’s calling “fakeout confirmed.”
He first laid out the roadmap on October 24, warning the entire thesis becomes void if Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $83,000.
Bitcoin’s next likely target is his bull market support band, which currently sits between $72,000 and $76,000 according to him.
Meanwhile, Cowen said on his YouTube video that Bitcoin’s rally above its May high, which started Sept. 21, has now been completely unwound, with price falling back below where that breakout candle even began.
He pointed to a broader pattern across risk assets this year: the Nasdaq, Dow, Russell 2000, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and even Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock all broke below their 50-day moving averages before sliding into their own bull market support bands.
“Why would Bitcoin be any different?” he said.
Cowen also highlighted a recurring calendar pattern, noting that Bitcoin’s impulsive rallies have peaked near the 21st of each month since July, a trend he has tracked for weeks.
What Could Still Move the Market This Week
The remaining items on Cowen’s checklist hinge on upcoming economic data:
- Oct. 28: whether the Fed skips a rate hike at its meeting
- Oct. 29: a hot PCE inflation reading that could push the 10-year Treasury yield back toward 5.3%
- Oil: a spike toward $120 a barrel over Iran tensions, which Cowen said would add further pressure
Together, he said these factors could drag both Bitcoin and stocks lower through the rest of the fourth quarter, a seasonal pattern he says has repeated in every midterm election year.
Cowen compared the current setup to past Bitcoin cycles in 2014, 2018 and 2022, when the asset’s final drawdown actually occurred after the midterms rather than before them, contradicting the common assumption that elections mark a market bottom.
Why Cowen Isn’t Fully Bearish Yet
Despite the checklist, Cowen said he still favors dollar-cost averaging rather than predicting a specific bottom.
His bigger worry isn’t a drop to the low $70,000s, but years of failed rallies without the kind of capitulation that reset monetary policy in 2020.
He noted Bitcoin hasn’t yet broken below its realized price, the network’s average on-chain cost basis, a level it also hadn’t breached by this point in the 2018 and 2022 cycles.
“Just because something doesn’t happen on the timetable you previously imagined doesn’t mean it won’t,” Cowen said.
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